Apr 12, 2026
3 min read
The prime minister is looking at the prospect of defeat in today's election on the hegemony he has built on a system designed to perpetuate his rule.
Hungary's Orban, under review after 16 years of corruption and dictatorship
The prime minister is looking at the possibility of losing the elections today in a hegemony he has built in a system designed to preserve his power
In 1989, in Budapest's Heroes' Square, a crowd witnessed the birth of a political monster.A 26-year-old liberal and anti-communist called for the immediate withdrawal of Russian troops from Hungary.The country wanted a democratic and autonomous government.The new politician, Viktor Orbán, is today the 62-year-old prime minister who has turned Hungary into a model of international freedom and an actor in Moscow's strategy.of Washington against European independence.
The journey of Orbán and Fidesz (Alliance of Young Democrats), the party he founded in 1988 with other students, contradicts what is believed.The standard bearer of Christian ultra-conservatism was an Oxford student in his youth thanks to a scholarship from philanthropist George Soros.In the 1989 campaign, he advocated the adoption of Western political and economic standards and limiting the role of the state and the church.
We wanted change and Fidesz was young, alternative and fresh," explained former MP and Fidesz founder Zsuzsanna Szelényi. Szelényi, a researcher at the Institute of Democracy at the Central European University (CEU), reminded Orbán that he is "strategic and radical" in an ideologically pluralist formation.
travel to the right
When the current prime minister took over the leadership of the party in 1994, the Liberals left because "the conflict was permanent and intolerable."
In 1998, at the age of 34, Orbán became the youngest prime minister in Hungarian history.In the 2002 elections, however, he did not renew his mandate.This defeat is said to have "traumatized" him.He then told Fidesz footage: "You only have to win once, but win a lot."That is, an indisputable victory that would protect and legitimize his power.
In 2010, he achieved it.Since then, it has chained two-thirds to four parliamentary supermajorities.This Sunday, for the first time, he will face a rival who the polls suggest will beat him.Ironically, opponent-turned-nemesis Peter Magyar was his own until two years ago.
The strength of Fidesz challenged by the Tissa candidate has become a case study.It has been called "electoral dictatorship", "hybrid state" or, as Orbán defined it in 2014, "illiberal democracy".Balint Magyar, a former education minister and researcher at CEU, defines it as a "mafia state": "a regime in which a political group takes over the institutions of the state and builds a network of employers with a pyramidal structure that controls everything."
When Fidesz returned to power in 2010, Orbán put in place the architecture that allowed him to consolidate 16 years of a parliamentary supermajority of more than two-thirds.The foundation is the law.In the first year, the constitution was reformed 12 times, until a new one was approved in 2011 with seven days of parliamentary debate.Since then, the law has been amended, clause by clause, by Professor Magyar and others.According to the work, the Constitution has changed up to 15 times.
The Electoral Act, which is key to ensuring re-election, has undergone more than 300 reforms, including the redrawing of constituencies.The result is a "free and unfair" system, emphasizes Magyar (no relation to Tissa opposition party candidate Peter Magyar), author of Post-Communist Mafia State: The Case of Hungary.For example, in the 2014 elections, Fidesz's 45% support translated into 67% of seats.
With the executive and legislative powers in his hands, Orbán also seized the judiciary, a term widely used in Hungary.The Constitutional Court, the Prosecutor's Office and the administrative body of judges are subordinate to him.As the former chairman of the National Judicial Council, judge Tamas Matusikas, explains, the system is constantly being reformed, "always favorable to its interests"."This creates uncertainty and affects the independence of the judiciary," he emphasizes.
The CEO exerts a crippling influence on judges by threatening them with procedures that violate impartiality rules, or by threatening their staff with smear campaigns against critical judges.was connected
Control 80% of the media
Orban decided in 2002 that if he wanted to hold power, he would have the media on his side.The information is borderline absurd.It doesn't just control the population.According to organizations such as Reporters Without Borders, approximately 80% of the media ecosystem is controlled by governments.
Movements never hide.In addition to the dominance of the sector by corporate advertising, an unusual process of media concentration has taken place in Hungary.Businessmen close to the government bought newspapers, magazines, radio stations and television channels, eventually donating the more than 400 media they bought to a foundation close to Fidesz.Now these newspapers and stations uniformly spread government propaganda and harass critical voices and opposition, denouncing independent observers.
Professor Magyar, who describes "ruling elites with clan structure", explains that economic power is equal in the service of the Feds.This group of about 12 people leads what Orbán christens is a national cooperation system (NER for Hungarian), a network based on personal loyalty.At the institutional level, organizations must be autonomous within a state to carry out honest opposition to the Feds.Ruled by a personality with an armored mandate of up to nine years.
In the economic sector, prominent names such as Lorinc Mészáros, a childhood friend of the prime minister who dedicated himself to installing gas.16 years ago, he became the richest man in Hungary.He is also joined by István Tiborcz, Orbán's son-in-law, who by 2025 had risen to 11th place on the list of billionaires.Gyozo Orbán, the father of the head of Government, did not do badly in business either.
"This is a predatory state based on bloodless state corruption," continues the Magyar researcher, who provides a tragic example of a "systematic" mode of operation.ESMA is a company dedicated to advertising on lampposts among other media.The government forced the owners to sell and they refused.Rain of checks from Treasury, Prosecutor etc.The owners did not relent until Parliament passed a law banning this advertisement, citing road safety reasons.When the company was almost bankrupt, he sold it to an "oligarch appointed by Fidesz".A month later, Parliament lifted the ban.
Another pillar of Orbán's power is silencing dissent, neutralizing diversity and controlling critical civil society.Orban has based his politics on Christian morality and the traditional white family.It turns into enemies anyone who is outside this social model, such as migrants – especially if they are Muslim – or the LGTBI community.The laws, inspired by Vladimir Putin's Russia, have troubled groups and NGOs advocating for them.Think of them as foreign agents.
Harassment of NGOs
Attacks have intensified since 2014, says Marta Fardavi, co-president of the Helsinki Committee."With every erosion of the rule of law, other rights and freedoms deteriorate," explains the lawyer and activist.The crackdown on NGOs has led to a decline in funding and capacity to operate: "Donors see Hungary as too difficult and too risky."
The freeze is affecting these tissues.Many people who previously devoted themselves to political advocacy now choose to focus on their own aid programs.“For example, they care about children, but in Hungary they do not raise their voices to condemn children's poverty,” says Pardoy.
In rural Hungary, the electoral system carries a lot of weight and demands more than the consumer expects.Joseph Peter Martin, director of Transparency International, says that "people in very poor areas trust the country's elites, people have a feudal nature."
Martin, who ranked Hungary as the most corrupt country in the European Union's Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), points out that this theft could lead to electoral fraud, reflected in a documentary released a few days ago.Can spend less.
Hungary's violations of fundamental rights and the rule of law, corruption and constant clashes between Brussels and Budapest.Orban uses his fight against EU "bureaucrats" and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as a civilizational war against liberal and progressive Europe.In 2022, the EU froze billions of euros, of which around 18,000 were blocked.This budget gap has contributed to the deterioration of the country's economy, which has ultimately created a perfect storm for Fidesz.
Until the economy stopped
Orbán's golden period was 2014–2019. Since then there have been crises.According to data from the European Commission, after the pandemic and the start of Russia's major invasion of Ukraine, inflation - now moderate - rose to 17% in 2023, the highest in the EU.The decline in investment was also a European record and amounted to 11.1% less in 2024. The economy went into recession this year and is now barely growing.
"Orban has been in power for 16 years. After years of stability, the economy is not doing well and when people feel that their situation has not improved, they direct their frustrations at the government. They are not satisfied and want change," says Itzvan Kis, CEO of the Danube Institute, one of the main think tanks associated with the Hungarian government.
Kiss rejects criticism of the quality of democracy."I don't think Hungary's democratic system is worse than other countries," he says, citing the cancellation of the 2024 elections in Romania or the intelligence surveillance of Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany party, classified as an "extremist" organization.
In addition to corruption, Peter Magyar focused his campaign on the deterioration of public services and the condemnation of Russian interference.The candidate escaped the system's traps with the skills of an insider.The campaign was one of the most tense, with allegations of foreign election interference and espionage.
Orbán has achieved an unprecedented feat in his campaign.He has had the unequivocal support of Donald Trump, who sees in him a tool to stoke "internal resistance" to the EU, and this Friday he promised economic aid to the country if his friend wins.And at the same time, the leader has the undisguised support of Vladimir Putin, at whose service the Hungarian Government insisted, explosive conversations that came to light during the campaign.Respectively.There is a lot at stake this Sunday in Brussels, Washington and Moscow.Even Beijing, which sees Hungary as a port of entry to the EU.International far-right movements also view the elections as a stress test for their symbolic leader.
But what is happening today will be the day of the Hungarians.President Orbán's referendum is between order and chaos, peace and war, with Ukraine identified as the main danger to the state.Tissia's leader, Péter Magyar, declares that it is "now or never" to end "the mafia and the corrupt state" and return the country to the West.Dismantling the Orbán regime will require the two main constitutional parties to agree on a framework designed to achieve loyalty to Fidesz.
In Hungary, there is a spirit of change.On Sunday we will see how many votes it brings.Orbán concluded his campaign this Saturday in Szentháromság Square, and he was not able to fully fill it.In the show, Eva, a 21-year-old flight attendant, said she would vote for Fidesz because the prime minister "is the only one who guarantees security."Another young woman, Vicenzina Soós, a 24-year-old computer engineer, came "to see his last act as a government, to see the fall and to see the calm before the storm."His voice was in Tiza.
On Friday, thousands of Hungarians, mostly young people, flocked to Hero's Square for a huge concert to close the campaign.Their hopes were the same as in 1989: "regime change."Laura, a 21-year-old student who does not remember any leader other than Orbán, summed up the mood: "People are finally free from fear, hopelessness and hopelessness."
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